A Bayesian framework to study the effects of hydrological extremes under present and future climate conditions

Global warming is predicted to amplify the hydrological cycle in the form of increased cloudiness, latent heat fluxes, intense precipitation events, and flooding. The forecasts of hydrological extremes are now being corroborated by empirical evidence, but there are still considerable gaps in our understanding of the complex interplay among hydrological factors, morphological features, land uses, and spatial patterns of the urban environment and agricultural activities that will determine flow regimes, nutrient and contaminant attenuation rates in a watershed context.

The proposed research program will study the effects of hydrological extremes on integrated watershed-receiving waterbody systems under present and future climate conditions. The main focus of the proposed research will be on Southern Ontario, but the hypotheses tested and conclusions drawn can be transferred and will stimulate research in other regions in Canada or the rest of the world. A key deliverable of the proposed program will be a novel Bayesian network of models that will offer critical planning information about the optimal mitigation strategies for alleviating the impact of climate change.