I am broadly interested in understanding how climate change, land use change and other anthropogenic influences alter the dynamical interactions that shape ecosystems, and lead the Laboratory of Quantitative Global Change Ecology at UTSC. My research blends mathematical and statistical modelling with field data collection and the analysis of existing long-term datasets, in an effort to identify the mechanisms driving change, forecast likely future impacts of global change, and propose mitigation strategies to address pressing conservation and wildlife health concerns. I take a global perspective and work on a variety of systems, ranging from the High Arctic to the tropical rainforests of Central America. Current efforts primarily focus on (a) global change impacts on large mammals, and (b) global change impacts on parasitism and disease spread.
Penk SR, Bodner K, Vargas Soto JS, Chenery ES, Nascou A, Molnár PK (2021) Mechanistic models can reveal infection pathways from prevalence data: the mysterious case of polar bears Ursus maritimus and Trichinella nativa. Oikos 130: 197-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.07458
Bodner K, Brimacombe C, Chenery ES, Greiner A, McLeod AM, Penk SR, Vargas Soto JS (2021). Ten simple rules for tackling your first mathematical models: A guide for graduate students by graduate students. PLoS Computational Biology 17(1): e1008539. https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/comments?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008539
Krkošek M, Jarvis-Cross M, Wadhawan K, Berry I, Soucy JP, Bodner K, Greiner A, Krichel L, Penk S, Shea D, Vargas Soto J, Tekwa E, Mideo N, Molnár P (2021). Establishment, contagiousness, and initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada. FACETS 6: 180-194. https://www.facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2020-0055
Chenery ES, Harms NJ, Mandrak NE, Molnár PK (2020) First records of Dermacentor albipictus larvae collected by flagging in Yukon, Canada. Parasites & Vectors 13: 565. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-020-04425-3