For an up-to-date list of publications and links to manuscripts, please also see Google Scholar


  1. Aleuy OA, Peacock SJ, Molnár PK, Ruckstuhl KE, Kutz SJ (2023). Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of parasitic helminths under climate change: the case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates. Global Change Biology (accepted).
  2. Archer LC, Atkinson S, Pagano A, Penk SR, Molnár PK (2023). Lactation performance in polar bears is associated with fasting time and energetic state. Marine Ecology Progress Series (accepted).
  3. Penk SR, Sadana P, Archer LC, Pagano AM, Cattet MRL, Lunn NJ, Thiemann GW, Molnár PK (2023). A body composition model with multiple storage compartments for polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Conservation Physiology 11: coad043.
  4. Orobko M, Molnár PK, Krkošek M (2023). Coexistence and alternative stable states in the bioeconomics of fisheries and aquaculture. Theoretical Ecology.
  5. Vargas Soto JS, Flatt EJ, Whitworth A, Salom-Pérez R, Espinoza-Muñoz D, Molnár PK (2023). More than one way to count a cat: estimation of ocelot population density using frameworks for marked and unmarked species. Biodiversity and Conservation 32: 1821-1838.
  6. Chenery ES, Harms NJ, Fenton H, Mandrak NE, Molnár PK (2023). Revealing large-scale parasite ranges: An integrated spatiotemporal database and multi-source analysis of the winter tick. Ecosphere 14: e4376.
  7. Peacock SJ, Kutz SJ, Hoar BM, Molnár PK (2022). Behaviour is more important than thermal performance for an Arctic host-parasite system under climate change. Royal Society Open Science 9: 220060.
  8. Vargas Soto JS, Beirne C, Whitworth A, Cruz Díaz JC, Flatt E, Pillco-Huarcaya R, Olson ER, Azofeifa A, Saborío-R. G, Salom-Pérez R, Espinoza-Muñoz D, Hay L, Whittaker L, Roldan C, Bedoya-Arrieta R, Broadbent EN, Molnár PK (2022). Human disturbance and shifts in vertebrate community composition in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Biology 36: e13813.
    Media coverage by Mongabay News
  9. Archer LC, Standley CJ, Molnár PK (2022). Fighting a fire versus waiting for the wave: useful and not-so-useful analogies in times of SARS-CoV-2. Bioscience 72: 573-584.
  10. Phillips JA, Vargas Soto JS, Pawar S, Koprivnikar J, Benesh DP, Molnár PK (2022). The effects of phylogeny, habitat, and host characteristics on the thermal sensitivity of helminth development. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 289: 2021878.
  11. Chenery ES, Henaff M, Magnusson K, Harms NJ, Mandrak NE, Molnár PK (2022). Improving wide-scale monitoring of ectoparasite presence in northern Canadian wildlife with the aid of citizen science. Insects 13: 380.
    Invited contribution to Special Issue: Citizen Science Approaches to Vector Surveillance
  12. Bodner K, Brimacombe C, Fortin MJ, Molnár PK (2022). Why body size matters: how larger fish ontogeny shapes ecological network topology. Oikos 2022: e08569
  13. Penk SR, Bodner K, Vargas Soto JS, Chenery ES, Nascou A, Molnár PK (2021) Mechanistic models can reveal infection pathways from prevalence data: the mysterious case of polar bears Ursus maritimus and Trichinella nativa. Oikos 130: 197-210.
    Cover story for Oikos issue
  14. Bodner K, Rauen Firkowski C, Bennett JR, Brookson C, Dietze M, Green S, Hughes J, Kerr J, Kunegel-Lion M, Leroux SJ, McIntire E, Molnár PK, Simpkins C, Tekwa E, Watts A, Fortin MJ (2021). Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision making. Ecosphere 12: e03869.
  15. Bodner K, Brimacombe C, Chenery ES, Greiner A, McLeod AM, Penk SR, Vargas Soto JS (2021). Ten simple rules for tackling your first mathematical models: A guide for graduate students by graduate students. PLoS Computational Biology 17: e1008539.
  16. Castañeda RA, Ackerman JD, Chapman LJ, Cooke SJ, Cuddington K, Dextrase AJ, Jackson DA, Koops MA, Krkošek M, Loftus KK, Mandrak NE, Martel AL, Molnár PK, Morris TJ, Pitcher TE, Poesch MS, Power M, Pratt TC, Reid SM, Rodríguez MA, Rosenfeld J, Wilson CC, Zanatta DT, Drake DAR (2021). Approaches and research needs for advancing the protection and recovery of imperilled freshwater fishes and mussels in Canada. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 78: 1256-1370.
  17. Vargas Soto JS, Castañeda R, Mandrak N, Molnár PK (2021). Estimating animal density in three dimensions using capture‐frequency data from remote detectors. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation 7: 36-49.
  18. Krkošek M, Jarvis-Cross M, Wadhawan K, Berry I, Soucy JPR, Bodner K, Greiner A, Krichel L, Penk S, Shea D, Vargas Soto JS, Tekwa EW, Mideo N, Molnár PK (2021). Establishment, contagiousness, and initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada. FACETS 6: 180-194.
  19. Molnár PK, Bitz CM, Holland MM, Kay JE, Penk SR, Amstrup SC (2020). Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence. Nature Climate Change 10: 732-738.
    Media coverage by The New York TimesThe GuardianThe Globe and Mail, and others.
  20. Peacock SJ, Krkošek M, Lewis M, Molnár PK (2020). A unifying framework for the transient parasite dynamics of migratory hosts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117: 10897-10903.
  21. Boonstra R, Bodner K, Bosson C, Delehanty B, Richardson ES, Lunn NJ, Derocher AE, Molnár PK (2020). The stress of Arctic warming on polar bears. Global Change Biology 26: 4197-4214.
    Media coverage by Hakai Magazine
  22. Chenery ES, Harms NJ, Mandrak NE, Molnár PK (2020). First records of Dermacentor albipictus larvae collected by flagging in Yukon, Canada. Parasites & Vectors 13: 565.
    Media coverage by CBC and Arctic Today
  23. Kirk D, Luijckx P, Jones N, Krichel L, Pencer C, Molnár P, Krkošek M (2020). Experimental evidence of warming-induced disease emergence and its prediction by a trait-based mechanistic model. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 287: 20201526.
  24. Bodner K, Fortin MJ, Molnár PK (2020). Making predictive modelling Accurate, Reliable, and Transparent (ART).  Ecosphere 11, e03160.
  25. Elbassiouny A, DiSordi P, Guay S, Hamilton A, King S, Brown J, Molnar P, Andrade MCB, Riggs CD, Stehlik I, Ashok A (2020).The whole is greater than the sum of the parts: a research poster project provides an integrative framework for learning across foundation courses in biology. Bioscene 46, 27-35.
  26. Hurford A, Cobbold C, Molnár PK (2019). Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 286: 20191157.
  27. Whitworth A, Beirne C, Flatt E, Huarcaya RP, Cruz Diaz JC, Forsyth A, Molnár PK, Vargas Soto JS (2018). Recovering secondary forest is well utilized by Great Curassow (Crax rubra) and Great Tinamou (Tinamus major) in the absence of hunting. The Condor: Ornithological Applications 120: 852-862.
  28. Kirk D, Jones N, Peacock S, Phillips J, Molnár PK, Krkošek M, Luijckx P (2018). Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics. PLoS Biology 16: e2004608.
    Highlighted by a Primer in PLoS Biology
  29. Peacock SJ, Bouhours J, Lewis MA, Molnár PK (2018). Macroparasite dynamics of migratory host populations. Theoretical Population Biology 120: 29-41.
  30. Molnár PK, Sckrabulis JP, Altman KA, Raffel TR (2017). Thermal performance curves and the Metabolic Theory of Ecology – a practical guide to models and experiments for parasitologists. Journal of Parasitology 103: 423-439.
    Invited contribution
  31. Dobson A, Molnár PK, Kutz S (2015). Climate change and Arctic parasites. Trends in Parasitology 31: 181-188.
  32. Molnár PK, Lewis MA, Derocher AE (2014). Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study. PLoS One 9: e85410.
  33. Kutz SJ, Hoberg EP, Molnár PK, Dobson A, Verocai GG (2014). A walk on the tundra: Host-parasite interactions in an extreme environment. International Journal for Parasitology 3: 198-208.
  34. Molnár PK, Dobson AP, Kutz SJ (2013). Gimme shelter – The relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change. Global Change Biology 19: 3291-3305.
  35. Molnár PK, Kutz SJ, Hoar BM, Dobson AP (2013). Metabolic approaches to understanding climate change impacts on seasonal host-macroparasite dynamics. Ecology Letters 16: 9-21.
    F1000-recommended; media coverage by American Museum of Natural History  and Princeton University News 
  36. Derocher AE, Aars J, Amstrup SC, Cutting A, Lunn NJ, Molnár PK, Obbard ME, Stirling I, Thiemann GW, Vongraven D, Wiig Ø, York G (2013). Rapid ecosystem change and polar bear conservation. Conservation Letters 6: 368-375.
    Media coverage by The New York Times, The Guardian, and others.
  37. Molnár PK, Derocher AE, Klanjscek T, Lewis MA (2011). Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size. Nature Communications 2: 186.
    Media coverage by The New York Times, The Times, CBC, and others.
  38. Molnár PK, Derocher AE, Thiemann GW, Lewis MA (2010). Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change. Biological Conservation 143: 1612-1622 (Corrigendum: Biol. Conserv. 177, 230-231).
    Media coverage by BBC, Scientific American, Yale Environment 360, and others.
  39. Molnár PK, Klanjscek T, Derocher AE, Obbard ME, Lewis MA (2009). A body composition model to estimate mammalian energy stores and metabolic rates from body mass and body length, with application to polar bears. Journal of Experimental Biology 212: 2313-2323.
  40. Molnár PK, Derocher AE, Lewis MA, Taylor MK (2008). Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 275: 217-226.
    Highlighted by Nature; media coverage by National Geographic, and others 
  41. Gaenssler P, Molnár PK, Rost D (2007). On continuity and strict increase of the cdf for the sup-functional of a Gaussian process with applications to statistics. Results in Mathematics 51: 51-60.

Other Articles

  1. Sistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación (53 contributors, including Vargas Soto JS & Molnár PK (2018) Estado de conservación del jaguar (Panthera onca) en Costa Rica a través de la integración de datos de registros de la especie y modelaje del hábitat idóneo. Proyecto—JICA. Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica. (in Spanish; government report on “The current state of jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation in Costa Rica, as established through the integration of observational records with models of ideal habitat”).
  2. Berestycki H, Hastings A, Lewis M, Molnár P (2013) Impact of climate change on biological invasions and population distributions. Conference Report Impacts of climate change on biological invasions and population distributions, Banff International Research Station,